Estimating global bank network connectedness

We use LASSO methods to shrink, select, and estimate the high‐dimensional network linking the publicly traded subset of the world's top 150 banks, 2003–2014. We characterize static network connectedness using full‐sample estimation and dynamic network connectedness using rolling‐window estimation. Statically, we find that global bank equity connectedness has a strong geographic component, whereas country sovereign bond connectedness does not. Dynamically, we find that equity connectedness increases during crises, with clear peaks during the Great Financial Crisis and each wave of the subsequent European Debt Crisis, and with movements coming mostly from changes in cross‐country as opposed to within‐country bank linkages.     

Unpredictable times: the extent,characteristics and correlates of insecure hours of work in Britain

This article presents new British evidence that suggests that cutting working hours at short notice is twice as prevalent as zero-hours contracts and triple the number of employees are very anxious about unexpected changes to their hours of work. The pay of these employees tends to be lower, work intensity higher, line management support weaker and the threat of dismissal and job loss greater. In addition, the well-being of these employees is lower and they are less committed to the organisations that employ them. However, the prevalence of insecure working hours is reduced by workplace level employee involvement exercised individually or through collective representation.     

Random Effects Misspecification Can Have Severe Consequences for Random Effects Inference in Linear Mixed Models

There has been considerable and controversial research over the past two decades into how successfully random effects misspecification in mixed models (i.e. assuming normality for the random effects when the true distribution is non‐normal) can be diagnosed and what its impacts are on estimation and inference. However, much of this research has focused on fixed effects inference in generalised linear mixed models. In this article, motivated by the increasing number of applications of mixed models where interest is on the variance components, we study the effects of random effects misspecification on random effects inference in linear mixed models, for which there is considerably less literature. Our findings are surprising and contrary to general belief: for point estimation, maximum likelihood estimation of the variance components under misspecification is consistent, although in finite samples, both the bias and mean squared error can be substantial. For inference, we show through theory and simulation that under misspecification, standard likelihood ratio tests of truly non‐zero variance components can suffer from severely inflated type I errors, and confidence intervals for the variance components can exhibit considerable under coverage. Furthermore, neither of these problems vanish asymptotically with increasing the number of clusters or cluster size. These results have major implications for random effects inference, especially if the true random effects distribution is heavier tailed than the normal. Fortunately, simple graphical and goodness‐of‐fit measures of the random effects predictions appear to have reasonable power at detecting misspecification. We apply linear mixed models to a survey of more than 4 000 high school students within 100 schools and analyse how mathematics achievement scores vary with student attributes and across different schools. The application demonstrates the sensitivity of mixed model inference to the true but unknown random effects distribution.     

Impact of Auditor Report Changes on Financial Reporting Quality and Audit Costs: Evidence from the United Kingdom

While substantial revisions to auditor reporting requirements are being implemented internationally, the impact of these reforms on financial reporting quality is unknown. We exploit the United Kingdom's recent auditor reporting changes and find that the United Kingdom's new reporting regime is associated with an improvement in financial reporting quality as proxied by significant decreases in absolute abnormal accruals and the propensity to just meet or beat analyst forecasts, and a significant increase in earnings response coefficients. As for audit costs, we do not find a significant change in audit fees or audit delay surrounding the implementation of the new reporting regime. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that new auditor reporting requirements are associated with a significant improvement in financial reporting quality without detecting a significant increase in audit costs.     

Using Compulsory Mobility to Identify School Quality and Peer Effects

Education production functions that feature school and student fixed effects are identified using students' school mobility. However, student mobility is driven by factors like parents' labour market shocks and divorce. Movers experience large achievement drops, are more often minority and free meal students, and sort endogenously into peer groups and school types. We exploit an English institutional feature whereby some students must change schools between grades 2 and 3. We find no evidence of endogenous sorting of such compulsory movers across peer groups or school types. Non‐compulsory movers bias school quality estimates downward by as much as 20% of a SD.     

ESTIMATING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE KOREAN ECONOMY WITHOUT RESTRICTIVE ASSUMPTIONS

This study eliminates the effects of markup, returns to scale, and capital utilization from the Solow residual (SR) for Korea to derive an alternative measure for productivity. Empirical results show that markup generates significant bias in the SR, and that the alternative productivity measure is greater than the residual. Furthermore, money supply Granger‐causes the SR but does not Granger‐cause the alternative measure, suggesting that the new productivity measure is consistent with the neutrality of money. The results contradict the presumption that the SR with variable capital utilization represents true technology shocks because it is orthogonal to demand shocks.(JEL C32, E32, O47)     

Audit Committee Effectiveness in Victorian Local Government

This research addressed the questions: do audit committees (AC) in Victorian local government function effectively? Qualitative and quantitative data were collected to measure the perceptions, attitudes and perspectives of mayors, chief executives and chairs of the AC. The results were compared with perceptions of committee members of the Local Government and Shires Association of New South Wales and board members of the Municipal Association of Victoria as the representative bodies of local government in New South Wales and Victoria. There was a similarity of views in relation to: (1) inputs of an AC; (2) the behavioural nuances of the rigour of debate, trust and effective communications; and (3) the relationships with councillors and management. Limitations to effectiveness included: (1) attraction and retention of members; (2) the variability of expertise and the skills of the members; (3) continuing professional development for members; (4) ‘gaming’ behaviours; (5) power games associated with the appointment process; and (6) domination of the AC by members or management. The suggested way forward is the reinforcement of a strong governance culture in local government and an effective AC providing oversight of compliance, governance, internal control and risk processes.     

Capital Regulation with Two Banking Sectors: Cyclicality and Implementation

We present a capital regulation policy in a model in which banks can choose to be unregulated, by operating in the shadow banking sector, when the cost of being regulated (restriction on portfolio risk) exceeds the benefit (cheaper funding/insurance). We show that the welfare maximizing capital requirement policy can be procyclical: lower requirement during booms and higher requirement during recessions. Our policy specifies the level of capital requirement as a function of the observed relative size of the unregulated and regulated banking sectors. This specification achieves the optimal aggregate risk exposure by obtaining the right mix of the two sectors.